PostDoc public lecture by dr. Huseyn Aliyev: Risk Analysis and State Failure. April 10, 2017 from 17:30

WHEN: Monday April 10, 2017, 17:30-19:00

WHERE: Room no. 205, MUP Strašnice building, Dubečská 900/10, Prague 10

Free entry, no registration required.

Which factors account for the global phenomenon of state failure? Do states fail because of economic problems or due to political violence? This research project aims at assessing the risk of state failure by challenging the existing theory on failed states and suggesting that neither armed conflict nor economic factors are instrumental towards the state failure. Rather, it is the presence of armed groups that weakens state structures and contributes towards their decline. These extra-state armed actors are not only rebel groups and other ‘regime-challengers’, but, most of all, pro-regime elements, such as pro-government militias, warlords, tribal coalitions, political factions and clans. A statistical risk analysis of all nation states between 1995 and 2015 is conducted to examine the validity of above theoretical claims. This study employs quantitative survival analysis in order to assess the risk of state failure globally and its association with other variables.